New Poll Shows Republican Surge in Nevada - KTVN Channel 2 - Reno Tahoe Sparks News, Weather, Video

New Poll Shows Republican Surge in Nevada

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A new CNN/ORC poll shows Republicans gaining a lot of momentum in the battle ground Silver State.

In mid-October, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by two points according to CNN/ORC. New CNN/ORC numbers released Wednesday show Donald Trump now leading Hillary Clinton by six points with Independent Gary Johnson at five percent and None of These at two percent. Just one percent is undecided.

The reddening trend continues in the race for Senate as well. In the same polls, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto led Republican Joe Heck by seven points in mid-October. Now, Heck leads Cortez Masto by two points. That poll has a margin of error of +/- 3% which means the race is virtually tied.

Fred Lokken, political professor at Truckee Meadows Community College says the Republican momentum is likely from what he calls soft-voters, those that are more easily influenced by headlines and campaign events.

"It will be who gets more of their vote out," says Lokken,  "And who is able to grab a hold of a chunk of those soft voters that aren't real strong but leaning."

Lokken says we also need to look at early voting. He says the number of Nevadans casting a ballot early is up this year, and the turnout has favored Democrats. He says the biggest unknown is whether the early voter turnout is up or if ALL turnout will be up. If it's just more Nevadans early voting, Lokken says that would hurt this Republican momentum.

"The surge that the Republicans may experience at the end would have to be significant to overcome what is a registration advantage," says Lokken, "which means that there are currently more democrats than republicans showing up."
 

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