Britain's National Pig Association says a worldwide bacon shortage is "unavoidable."
This summer's drought left farmer's with less corn and soybean feed to give their herds. "The world's pig farmers are warning of a shortage of bacon and pork next year because pig-feed has become unaffordable following disastrous growing and harvesting weather," reads a statement from the NPA released earlier this month. "Governments are becoming increasingly concerned."
The number of slaughtered pigs could drop by 10%, doubling the price of pork next year.
"The headlines say ‘shortage,' and that isn't going to be the case," says Steve Meyer, a consulting economist for the National Pork Board and the National Pork Producers Council, as well as the president of Paragon Economics in Adel, Iowa. "We aren't going to see bacon lines. You'll still be able to get it."
Bacon lovers in the U.S. don't have to panic just yet.
America's pork supply actually reached a record last month with sliced bacon topping out at $4.84 a pound in June and pork chops averaging $3.64 a pound in September. USDA estimates those prices have since dropped by about 23 cents and 6 cents, respectively. But the effects will be short-lived when the accelerated liquidation ends and the shortage begins to take hold.
U.S. hog farmers have been reducing their herds due to high feed costs, but the situation isn't as bad as it is in the U.K.
So when will pork prices go down? "It's unusual to have two droughts in a row, and we'll get some break if the annual South American soybean crop is good," Meyer says. But lower pork prices won't come until 2014. For beef, which is also going up, it could be closer to 2016, he says.
